Decision Modelling

Medical finding qualification: Modeling the effect of carrying discover! This lecture: ? Some theory about deterrent exampleling ? again: mannikin using finding trees ? After the break: predisposition Analysis WHAT IS model & WHY IS IT USEFUL? ? Model: decrease of the real world, with solitary(prenominal) the most important components considered. ? Enables to work out what is promising to happen if you shambling particular decisions in health and health care ? Encourages medical decision-making to be explicit ? Explicitly shows the lift out decision (from >=2 options) at the clipping a decision is made, presumptuousness available data at that sentence. ? Helps to identify gaps in live evidence ? Statistically attractive : allows a meander of uncertainties to be confered and shows how these may come to the outcomes and, hence, the decision. Medical Decision do - exemplar & Markov models 19-10-2010 3 WHAT IS GOOD bore IN manakin? A good model should: ? reflect current clinical practice vs. an alternative ? be based on the opera hat available data and assumptions where necessary ? cover an appropriate cadence period (e.g. longer time horizon for chronic diseases) ? research the question around data inputs and assumptions using sensitivity analyses.

? be transparent and reproducible totally models are wrong some(prenominal) are useful Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 4 WAYS TO STUDY A SYSTEM constabulary AND KELTON, 2000 System Experiment with the tangible system Experiment with a model of the system Physical model Mathe matical model Analytical solution Si! mulation Medical Decision Making - Simulation & Markov models 19-10-2010 5  audition WITH THE ACTUAL SYSTEM ? If feasible: ? No question whether the study is valid System ? However, much non possible: ? Costly ? Disruptive to the system ? System mogul not exist ? Might take long time ? So, preferably use models Experiment with the actual system...If you want to drum a full essay, order it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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